Two years later, instead of dissipating, political tensions escalated during the 2019 presidential election, pitting Joko Widodo-KH Ma’ruf Amin against Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno. Unlike the 2017 election, the impact extended nationwide, affecting the entire Indonesian population.
Islamic groups shifted their support to Prabowo-Sandi and employed the same strategy as in the Jakarta election, using identity politics. Prabowo-Sandi was portrayed as the embodiment of Islam, while Jokowi-Amin were considered anti-Islamic, even labeled as representing Islamophobia due to their perceived mistreatment of religious scholars. Consequently, what was essentially a profane presidential race turned into a holy war in defense of religion.
The 2019 presidential election witnessed a surge in populist political Islam, where religious identity was used as a tool to stir emotional Islamism and garner electoral support. Over time, polarization between these factions intensified, with derogatory terms like ‘cebong’ and ‘kampret’ used to mock one another. Religious narratives were also loudly proclaimed daily to convince the public.
From the above analysis, it is evident that merging political interests with religion has brought about significant challenges. It is crucial to closely examine the steps taken by Islamic groups—both Institutional and Jihadist—in the upcoming 2024 elections to prevent a repeat of such incidents.
As of the time of writing, there are three prominent figures vying for the presidential seat in the 2024 elections: Anies Baswedan, Ganjar Pranowo, and Prabowo Subianto. If there are no last-minute changes, these three figures are likely to be officially nominated as presidential candidates by the General Election Commission (KPU). This implies that Islamic groups are likely to align themselves with either Prabowo Subianto or Anies Baswedan.
Supporting Ganjar seems unlikely, if not impossible. Ganjar is affiliated with the PDI Perjuangan party, which Islamic groups strongly oppose due to its perceived criminalization of religious scholars, submission to oligarchy, and support for blasphemy. As described earlier, historical political events suggest that only Prabowo and Anies have received support from Islamic groups.