However, considering the current political landscape, these predictions may face challenges and potential setbacks. Islamic groups were disappointed when Prabowo accepted a ministerial position in the Indonesia Maju cabinet, leading to a decrease in support for him.
It may be assumed that Islamic groups will firmly support Anies in this context. However, the declaration of Cak Imin (from PKB) as a vice-presidential candidate has also generated disappointment among Islamic groups, as stated by Novel Bamukmin (Deputy Secretary-General of PA 212) in an online news portal, Tribunnews. Furthermore, PKS is reconsidering its support after Anies chose Cak Imin as his running mate.
The question then arises: where will Islamic groups align themselves? Will they stay out of the 2024 election? In my opinion, this is unlikely. Islamic groups are not entities that lack maneuverability. The strongest reason for Islamic groups to remain engaged is the historical significance of 2024, which marks the centenary of the fall of the Ottoman Empire. According to their claims, in accordance with a prophetic tradition, a reformer (mujaddid) will emerge. Therefore, Islamic groups are expected to be highly active in the lead-up to the 2024 elections, as it represents a crucial moment in the transfer of power. Moreover, this election does not feature an incumbent, making the outcome highly unpredictable.
In conclusion, regardless of where Islamic groups align themselves, we must remain vigilant. We should not fall into the trap of identity-based political maneuvering. Oppose the politicization of identity!
*translated from here.