Post-reform election data also confirms this historical trend, which has continued to the present day, even after NU gave rise to the National Awakening Party (PKB). For example, in the 1999 election, PKB received 13.2 million votes or 12.62 percent. This trend continued to decline, especially after Gus Dur left PKB. In the 2004 election, PKB’s vote share dropped to 10.56 percent. PKB’s vote share further plummeted to 4.95 percent in the 2009 election. While PKB managed to “rebound” in the last two elections, it has never reached the levels of the past. In the 2014 and 2019 elections, PKB received 9.04 percent and 9.69 percent of the vote, respectively, still below the 10 percent threshold.
The trend in PKB’s vote share, as a political party born from NU, stands in stark contrast to the data and the mass strength of Nahdliyin. NU is the largest Islamic mass organization in the world. According to research, in 2013, the estimated NU membership reached 40 million people, surging to 95 million in 2021. This doesn’t even include those who verbally identify as NU members.
Based on research in 2022, the total Muslim population in Indonesia reached 250 million or 260 million people out of a total population of approximately 280 million. Of this Muslim population, around 56.9 percent identify as Nahdliyin or are affiliated with NU. This means that the current number of NU members could be over 140 million people, approximately half of Indonesia’s total population and nearly half of the total eligible voters in elections.
Based on this data, if there were a political party that represented the exclusive voice of NU, it would automatically win elections. However, PKB, the party created to accommodate the political aspirations of NU members, has never won an election, even after the 1999 election when it peaked. In other words, the votes of NU members have consistently flowed in various directions. They have never been centralized. This is also confirmed by the fact that throughout Indonesia’s political history, except during the New Order regime, no election winner has ever secured the majority of votes in the sense of 50+1 percent. Winning parties have only been able to garner less than 25 percent of the vote.
These historical data and facts can be used as reference points for understanding the direction of Nahdliyin’s votes in the upcoming General Election and Presidential Election (Pilpres) in 2024. For example, even though PKB has formed a coalition with the Nasdem Party (and possibly PKS) and nominated Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar as presidential and vice-presidential candidates, it can be assured that Nahdliyin’s votes will not automatically gravitate towards them.