In the 2024 Pilpres, for instance, it is not a given that Nahdliyin members will vote for the Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar (Cak Imin) ticket, despite Cak Imin being an NU member and claiming support from many NU kiai. The votes of NU members will still be spread across multiple parties, and their choice for the presidential and vice-presidential candidates will not be uniform.
This is evident in many surveys, where PKB’s electability remains around 9 percent, and Cak Imin’s chances as a vice-presidential candidate have never exceeded 1 percent. This is also confirmed by a survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) Denny JA among NU voter respondents. This NU voter-based survey was conducted in early August 2023 and involved 1,200 respondents. The sample was selected using a multistage random sampling method.
According to the LSI Denny JA survey results, PKB is not the exclusive political choice of Nahdliyin members. In LSI Denny JA’s projections, PKB’s vote share may increase but only to around 11.6 percent. The ultimate winner remains the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) with a vote share of 21.9 percent. Based on the survey among NU voter respondents, LSI Denny JA concludes that the votes of NU members are distributed across many parties, including PKS, which is ideologically “opposed” to NU.
This means that the battle for the votes of NU members remains wide open, especially for presidential and vice-presidential candidates, despite PKB’s nomination of Anies Baswedan and Cak Imin. Both Anies Baswedan-Cak Imin and Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo will have equal opportunities to compete for the votes of Nahdliyin members.
With such a widespread distribution of votes, predicting and deciphering Nahdliyin’s support remains challenging. However, wherever it may ultimately align, the Nahdliyin vote will determine the election winner due to its significant size. Whoever can secure the most votes from Nahdliyin members will emerge as the winner.